There are 16 teams in the knockout stages of a football tournament. For the sake of argument, say that each team has a distinct ranking from 1 (best) to 16 (worst), and that in any individual match, the better team will always win and progress to the next round.

The first round matches are randomly arranged, and the eight winners of those matches are randomly arranged in four matches in the quarter final etc.

What is the probability that the fifth best team will reach the final?